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The Tell: One chart shows which sectors do best, and worst, when inflation expectations rise

Jefferies

Some economists and investors are convinced that after numerous false starts, inflation is finally ready for a resurgence. But a look at how individual sectors and groups perform when inflation expectations begin to rise offers up a surprise or two.

Read:Is it finally time for the inflation trade?

The chart at the top of the page from Jefferies breaks out which sectors tend to do best—and worst—when inflation expectations start to rise. During the last four trough-to-peak cycles for inflation expectations, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.47%SPX, +0.47% has risen by a median 13%, while energy has outperformed by a median of 37%; materials and industrials have posted mid-single-digit relative returns.

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