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Mark Hulbert: There’s a 65% chance that the U.S. stock market will rise in 2017

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — There’s a 65.5% chance that the U.S. stock market will rise in 2017. If you’re like most investors, that’s welcome news.

Given the advanced age of the economic expansion, an overvalued stock market by virtually any measure and the uncertainty surrounding a new president, a two-out-of-three chance of turning a profit seems almost too good to be true.

Still, before you make too much of those odds, know that they would not be meaningfully better or worse if conditions were different. That’s because the stock market looks forward, not backward. Current conditions are already reflected in stock prices.

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