Forecaster of the Month: Let’s hear it for the experts who got it right!

Why should anyone pay any attention to the experts? They failed to predict the financial crisis. They failed to predict Donald Trump. They get us into wars and into dumb trade deals. They tell us what to eat, what to think and how to live. They are smug, comfortable and never doubt their own wisdom, but they are often wrong.

That’s the conventional wisdom, anyway, and there is an element of truth in it. The worlds of finance, economics and politics are littered with people who are as wrong as they are certain. And yet these people never seem to suffer for their failures.

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