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Howard Gold’s No-Nonsense Investing: Geopolitical black swans are the stock market’s biggest risk

The S&P 500 index is up almost 10% since Election Day, as the Trump rally rolls on.

I think this is a continuation of the stock market’s SPX, -0.11% bull run that began in March 2009, but this time, as I’ve written, the catalyst is political: the prospects that a Trump Administration will cut regulations and taxes and stimulate the economy with a big infrastructure program.

How much of that will Congress pass? Who knows? But with earnings growth resuming and investors already factoring in three hikes in the federal funds rate this year, only a sudden burst of inflation or the prospects of recession could derail this market.

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