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Outside the Box: What 10 million simulations tell us about President Trump’s chances of achieving 3% economic growth

President Donald Trump’s budget is premised on the projection that the United States will be able to raise its long-run economic growth rate to 3% a year. This rate allows the budget to assume large tax cuts and still project a balanced budget after 10 years. This long-run forecast represents the largest divergence between an administration forecast and that of either the consensus forecast of the Blue Chip survey of private forecasters (2.0%) or that of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (1.9%) in many decades.

For example, the administration’s forecast is 1.0 percentage point above the Blue Chip consensus—whereas in the 24 budgets under Presidents Bill Clinton, George W.

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