Vitaliy Katsenelson’s Contrarian Edge: Here’s the big secret to know about the stock market’s next move

In the wake of Monday’s sharp stock market plunge and Tuesday’s relieving rebound, hedge fund managers, analysts, pundits, and other stock market oracles are quick to pontificate on what the market will do next.

I want to let you in on a Wall Street secret: nobody knows. Don’t be fooled by fancy pedigrees, billions of dollars under management, the eloquence of their logic, the myriad data points they spout. Nobody — absolutely nobody — knows what the stock market will do tomorrow, next week, or next year. Stock market behavior in the short term is completely random. You’ll have a better luck predicting the next card at a blackjack table than guessing the market’s next move.

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