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The Tell: Here’s the stock market’s biggest tail risk

A “trade war” is the top tail risk for financial markets, according to fund managers, who also now overwhelmingly describe the global economy as entering the “late cycle” period.

“Cracks in the bull case are starting to emerge, with fund managers citing concerns over trade, stagflation and leverage,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, referring to the firm’s monthly global fund managers survey released on Tuesday.

“Investors have yet to act on these fears, however, as rates and earnings are keeping the bulls bullish,” he said.

Read:Trump set to slap China with $60 billion in annual tariffs: report

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