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Capitol Report: Why a major trade war could mean a ‘full-blown recession’

So far, the trade war has been more bark than bite, as the U.S. tariffs on aluminum, steel and Chinese goods are dwarfed in magnitude by threatened levies.

A new research note says that’s a relief, because an all-out trade war risks a recession.

To date, there’s only been escalation, and for good reason. As President Donald Trump has announced and then implemented tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum, as well as an initial $50 billion of Chinese goods, his standings in polls have improved, the economy may record a GDP print north of 4% for the second quarter, and U.S.

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