The Tell: This is the ‘single most important factor to follow’ for the stock market! Hint: it isn’t trade wars, says Third Point’s Loeb

Activist investor Dan Loeb says it isn’t trade-war conflicts that could present the most significant pain for the stock market over the near term.

Rather, the founder of hedge fund Third Point LLC thinks that the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy could prove the undoing of an economic expansion that has stretched into its ninth year.

“The single most important factor to follow is Fed action. If the Fed is determined to ‘kill the patient’ through aggressive intervention in the form of rate hikes then the current health of the patient is irrelevant,” wrote Loeb in a quarterly letter to clients to discuss his hedge funds performance.

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