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In One Chart: Trump’s trade fights and a hard Brexit could take tariffs to levels not seen in 15 years

The Trump administration’s trade fights and a so-called hard Brexit could lift the magnitude of global tariffs to levels last seen roughly 15 years ago, according to UBS economists.

And the recent U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures, are viewed by the Swiss bank as the biggest factor in boosting this metric. They’re followed by the possible hard Brexit, which refers to the potential for a sharp break between the U.K. and the European Union when the country leaves the trade bloc in March.

“Combined, these two would add 142 [basis points] to the average global import tariff, essentially reversing about 15 years of progress in global tariff reduction,” said UBS chief economist, Arend Kapteyn, and his colleagues in a recent note.

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