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Mark Hulbert: Here’s what the bear market in home construction stocks is trying to tell us

Halloween may have passed, but home construction stocks continue to build a house of horrors: They’re down nearly 40%, on average, from their early-2018 highs. Nevertheless, don’t be too quick to conclude that their misery spells the end of the bull market.

Of course, it’s understandable why home construction stocks’ weakness is so worrying, since the sector proved to be a good leading indicator of the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis. A year prior to the 2007-09 bear market, for example, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB, +3.11% , for example, had already fallen 25%.

By the time that bear market started in October 2007, furthermore, this ETF had fallen 56%.

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