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The Tell: How the stock-market selloff raises the odds of a recession

The stock market isn’t the economy, the saying goes. But they clearly aren’t completely unrelated either, and there is the risk that the equity market’s October stumble could be an inauspicious marker when it comes to the global outlook.

That’s the warning from economists Gabriel Sterne and Louis Mullen of Oxford Economics, in a Tuesday note. While they emphasized that they don’t want to be lumped in with the “Dr. Dooms of the world” and that recession in the next two years isn’t their central case, they bumped up the probability that the global expansion comes to an end in that period to 25% from 20% previously.

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