Commodities Corner: Coffee futures may jump over 20% by year-end with global surplus expected to turn into a deficit

Coffee has fallen below a dollar a pound to trade close to its lowest level in more than a decade, but a global glut that pushed prices down for the past two years may finally come to an end in 2019.

“The coffee market is fighting a war on a few different fronts at the moment,” says John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Brazil’s 2018 bumper crop, which produced a record 62 million 60 kilogram bags of Arabica and Robusta coffee, has pushed prices to multiyear lows—well below the cost of production for most farmers, he says.

Futures prices KCK9, +1.19% settled at 96.80 cents a pound on Feb.

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