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The most reliable market indicator comes out at night

Traders are on an eternal search for some “edge” that lets them beat the market. It turns out the answer was staring them right in the face.

The most reliable indicator has nothing to do with earnings or the Federal Reserve. Hang on to your hat: The returns of stock exchanges around the world are strongly affected by the phase of the moon.

In a nutshell, markets rise several annualized percentage points faster during the 14 or 15 calendar days around a new moon than they do in a similar period around the full moon.

That might seem pretty woo-woo. But when you think about it, there’s a logical basis.

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