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The Tell: Stocks are poised for an 18% hit, warns economist who nailed last financial crisis

Gary Shilling has a knack for predicting turns in the economy. The former chief economist for Merrill Lynch did it in the 1960s. Again in 1991. And then, leading up to the financial crisis in 2008, he consistently warned the housing boom would turn to bust. We all know how that one turned out.

Now, he’s making another call.

“I give a business downturn starting this year a two-thirds probability,” he wrote in a Bloomberg News op-ed. “The recessionary indicators are numerous.”

Shilling, portfolio manager and president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., pointed to factors such as the near-inversion in the Treasury yield curve, the nasty December for stocks, weaker housing activity, soft consumer spending, etc.

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