Outside the Box: When the U.S. falls into a recession, a credit bubble will explode

The European Central Bank this month said it would keep record-low interest rates for longer. The news comes shortly after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave in to the stock market and held off on further interest-rate increases.

While investors celebrate the policy reversal, they might soon regret it.

This stimulus may indeed buy the market an additional year or two. But postponing the inevitable downturn with artificially low rates will come at a cost. The cost is a massive credit bubble that is already of biblical proportions. Its implications chill me to the bone.

Credit cycles

Here’s a quote from my friend Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, a $3.5 billion wealth-management firm, which drew an enormous amount of interest: “We no longer have business cycles; we have credit cycles.

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