Outside the Box: Scott Galloway: Lyft’s stock one 1 year after IPO will be much, much lower

Lyft is now trading on the NASDAQ exchange, and I predict it will break $100/share, 40% above the $70-72 price range set by bankers. Twelve months later, the shares will trade much, much lower. Note: Predicting is dangerous work, so if I’m wrong, I’d ask that you love me, not judge me. But I digress.

The pop Lyft’s LYFT, +8.74% equity will register on the first day is understandable, as IPOs in the new economy are luxury items with the key attribute people grossly overpay for: the illusion of scarcity.

There are half as many publicly traded firms as there were 20 years ago, and most new economy firms have found the private markets have all of the taste (liquidity, rich valuations) without any of the calories (disclosures, reporting, SEC filings, transparency, analysts using rational valuation models, etc.

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