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Howard Gold’s No-Nonsense Investing: This yield curve expert with a perfect track record sees recession risk growing

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.06% , S&P 500 SPX, +2.14% , and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +2.65% lost anywhere from 6.6% to 7.9% in the worst May for stocks since 2010, bond prices have soared.

Bond yields, which move in the opposite direction from price, dipped below 2.1% on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.13% on Tuesday, from 3.23% last November, a gigantic move for bonds in such a short time.

Meanwhile, shorter-term rates have held steady, creating the dreaded prospect of an inverted yield curve — when long-term yields fall below shorter-term yields.

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