Mark Hulbert: Chances are the U.S. stock market will be higher by year-end, but there’s a catch

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — There’s a two-out-of-three chance that, on Dec. 31, the stock market will be higher than it is today.

That certainly appears to be good news, since the Dow Jones Industrials Average DJIA, +0.03% is already sitting on a year-to-date gain of more than 15% (assuming dividends were reinvested). Additional gains would assure 2019’s place in the record books as one of the better ones in U.S. history.

Unfortunately, this news isn’t as good as it appears. The odds of a rising market between July and December would be the same even if equities today had produced a year-to-date loss.

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