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Project Syndicate: Old age doesn’t kill economic expansions — and the usual culprits are nowhere in sight

LONDON (Project Syndicate) — The U.S. economy has entered its 11th year of uninterrupted expansion, breaking the previous record for the longest period of growth in American history without a recession.

But far from celebrating, many economists conclude from this unprecedented performance that a recession is now overdue, if not immediately then surely before the 2020 presidential election. Fortunately for the U.S. economy, but sadly for President Donald Trump’s opponents, the idea that economic expansions have some kind of natural lifespan and then die of old age has neither empirical nor theoretical support.

Many economists have become convinced that a recession in the United States is now overdue, if not immediately then surely before the 2020 presidential election.

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