Forecaster of the Month: Economy is bouncing back, award-winning forecaster says

Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS

Stop worrying: The U.S. economy isn’t about to slip into a recession. In fact, the economy is now reaccelerating after the trade-induced winter freeze, according to economists at UBS, who won the Forecaster of the Month contest for June. It’s the 10th time UBS has won the monthly award from MarketWatch.

The big question in the economy these days boils down to what you think the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade wars will be.

One camp, represented by UBS chief U.S. economist Seth Carpenter and his team, believes that the tariffs are like a bump in the road, a one-time supply shock to manufacturing output and business investment that should dissipate.

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