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Wisdom of crowds? Ordinary Americans beat ‘experts’ in predicting mortgage rates

If you’ve ever locked in a mortgage rate only to watch borrowing costs drop even more, you know how frustrating it can be to try to predict what markets will do and when, exactly, they’ll do it.

But it looks like Americans as a group may be getting better at these predictions.

Every month, mortgage liquidity provider Fannie Mae conducts a survey of households, which asks whether people expect mortgage rates to go up or down.

In the most recent month, for example, 39% of respondents said they expected rates to go up, fewer than expected such a move when asked a month earlier.

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